Shiba Inu (SHIB) Could Be on the Verge of a Sharp Move
Shiba Inu (SHIB) could be on the verge of a sharp move, according to analyst Joe Swanson, who forecasts a 70% rally from current levels. He bases his outlook on SHIB’s ability to hold key support levels and on signs of renewed accumulation.
Swanson points to a cup-and-handle pattern forming on SHIB’s chart as the basis for his bullish call. A cup-and-handle is a technical pattern that often signals the continuation of an uptrend. The “cup” resembles a rounded bottom, while the “handle” represents a short period of consolidation before a breakout. Swanson argues that SHIB has completed its consolidation and is preparing for a move that could deliver a 70% gain, lifting price toward the $0.000021 range.
While that would mark a strong recovery from current levels, it would still leave the token far below its all-time high of $0.000088, reached during the 2021 bull market. Swanson notes that SHIB has delivered sharp rallies in the past following periods of prolonged consolidation, such as in early 2021, when sideways trading was followed by a surge of more than 300%.
Shiba Inu Whales Add to Their Holdings While Retail Activity Lags
On-chain data shows that whales now control 61.61% of SHIB’s circulating supply, an increase of 0.51% over the past 30 days. Whales often play a decisive role in crypto markets because of the scale of their holdings. Netflows of SHIB into and out of exchanges have also stabilized after significant outflows in June, suggesting reduced short-term selling pressure.
However, retail participation remains subdued. SHIB currently records around 77,500 daily active addresses, compared with more than 300,000 during the 2021 rally. Past surges were heavily fueled by retail demand, and without similar participation, whale accumulation alone may struggle to sustain a rally of the size Swanson predicts.
Additionally, Shibarium, Shiba Inu’s Layer-2 blockchain, processed 4.68 million daily transactions this week, with total wallet addresses surpassing 267 million. High transaction activity supports SHIB’s burn mechanism, which permanently removes tokens from circulation to reduce supply. On average, Shibarium transactions burn millions of SHIB tokens daily. However, the effect is modest when compared with SHIB’s total circulating supply of nearly 589 trillion.
At the same time, Total Value Locked (TVL) in Shibarium protocols is only $1.72 million. This is down 4.29% in 24 hours. TVL measures the amount of capital committed to decentralized finance applications. The gap between high transaction counts and low TVL suggests users are active but not committing significant liquidity, limiting the economic weight behind network activity.
RSI Near Oversold While 200-Day EMA Blocks Path Higher
SHIB traded near $0.00001227, holding above its $0.00001200 support zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which tracks whether an asset is overbought or oversold on a scale of 0 to 100, reads 37.75. Levels below 40 often signal oversold conditions, creating room for a rebound. But because the RSI remains below the neutral 50 mark, it shows demand is still weak.
SHIB price is approaching the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are clustered between $0.00001318 and $0.00001443. The 200-day EMA, at $0.0000144, is a key long-term resistance level. Breaking above it would be seen as confirmation of a bullish reversal.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which measures momentum, has crossed into negative territory, showing that short-term momentum favors sellers. Meanwhile, trading volume is about 40% lower than July’s peak, signaling limited conviction among buyers.
Funding rate data for SHIB futures contracts is neutral to slightly negative. Funding rates measure the cost of holding long versus short positions. Neutral or negative readings indicate that traders are not aggressively betting on price increases.
SHIB on the Verge of Breakout or False Start?
If SHIB can break and hold above the 200-day EMA at $0.0000144 with stronger trading volume, price models show potential for a move toward the $0.0000208 to $0.000021 range. This would deliver the 70% gain Swanson forecasts.
However, without a clear surge in both volume and retail participation, SHIB risks a false breakout. This is a scenario where price briefly rises above resistance but fails to hold, often triggering sharp pullbacks. In that case, SHIB could remain capped around the $0.000018 to $0.000019 zone, which represents a gain of about 50–55%.
Joe Swanson’s projection of a 70% rally for SHIB is supported by growing whale holdings and high Shibarium transaction activity. Yet, weak TVL, subdued retail engagement, and resistance at the 200-day EMA underline the challenges ahead. A confirmed breakout backed by higher volume and broader market participation will be crucial in determining whether SHIB can deliver the upside Swanson envisions.