Bitcoin’s profitability has fallen to its lowest point in over a month, signaling cooling market sentiment and growing bearish pressure.
BTC Profitability Hits 41-Day Low
Data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin’s Percent Supply in Profit dropped to 91.71% on August 1. This metric tracks the share of BTC’s circulating supply currently held at a profit, offering a clear gauge of market sentiment. It typically peaks during strong rallies and declines when confidence fades.
The latest drop suggests that more BTC holders are either at breakeven or facing unrealized losses. Historically, such declines have aligned with consolidation phases or price corrections, reflecting weaker market momentum after extended gains.
BTC’s recent slide to this level indicates that bullish enthusiasm is cooling. As fewer holders remain in profit, near-term buying pressure could ease, creating conditions for additional downside risk.
Futures Data Signals Bearish Shift
Futures traders are also showing reduced conviction. Coinglass data reveals Bitcoin’s long/short ratio slipped below 1, standing at 0.96. This marks a tilt toward bearish positioning, as more traders are betting on BTC’s price falling rather than rising.
A ratio above 1 indicates dominance of long positions and bullish sentiment, while a ratio below 1 reflects increasing short bets and market caution. The current shift underlines fading confidence among leveraged traders following weeks of upward price action.
With profitability down and futures traders leaning bearish, Bitcoin now faces a key test. Absent new catalysts, these conditions could limit short-term upside and increase the likelihood of further corrections.
Glassnode’s profitability data and futures market trends highlight a notable cooling of sentiment across both spot and derivatives markets.
Bitcoin Forms Bullish Flag Pattern with 18% Upside Potential
The BitcoinBTC/USDTchart, created on August 3, 2025, shows a bullish flag pattern on the 4-hour timeframe. This pattern appears after a strong upward move, followed by a consolidation phase marked by two parallel downward-sloping trend lines. The price is currently trading near $113,692 while testing the lower boundary of this flag structure.
A bullish flag pattern is a continuation signal that typically emerges in strong uptrends. It forms when the price rallies sharply, then pulls back in a narrow channel as traders take profits. The breakout from this consolidation often signals the resumption of the prior uptrend. When confirmed, this pattern usually results in a price surge equal to the height of the initial rally before consolidation.
If Bitcoin confirms this breakout, the price could rise by approximately 18% from its current level, targeting around $134,575. The projected move aligns with the height of the flagpole measured from the breakout point. This potential upside would push Bitcoin above its recent resistance, strengthening bullish momentum.
Volume analysis supports this scenario, as declining volume during consolidation often precedes a breakout. Additionally, the price remains just below the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA), now near $116,147. A decisive close above this EMA would reinforce the bullish case, providing further confirmation of trend continuation.
If Bitcoin successfully breaks out of this flag pattern, it would signal renewed strength after the recent pullback, potentially setting the stage for another upward rally in the short term.
Bitcoin Stochastic Momentum Index Signals Oversold Rebound
The chart, created on August 3, 2025, displays Bitcoin’s Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) on the 4-hour timeframe. The SMI currently shows a reading of -22 (blue line) crossing above the signal line at -39 (orange line). This crossover has occurred in the oversold region, indicating a potential shift from bearish pressure toward a short-term rebound.
The SMI is a refined version of the stochastic oscillator that measures momentum relative to a defined price range. Readings below -40 reflect oversold conditions, suggesting that selling pressure may be exhausted. Conversely, readings above +40 indicate overbought conditions and possible pullbacks.
In this case, the SMI’s upward crossover in the oversold zone signals early signs of renewed buying momentum. This move aligns with the ongoing consolidation visible on Bitcoin’s price chart, supporting the possibility of a bullish reversal if momentum strengthens further.
If this upward move continues, Bitcoin’s price could retest its 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) near $116,147. A sustained recovery above this level would reinforce bullish sentiment and align with the bullish flag breakout projection toward $134,575. However, failure to maintain momentum could lead to another test of recent support levels near $112,000.
This indicator’s behavior suggests that Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after oversold pressure, setting the stage for a possible upward move if confirmed by price action.
Bitcoin RSI Near Oversold Levels Signals Potential Recovery
The chart, created on August 3, 2025, shows Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour timeframe. The RSI is currently at 39.91, with its moving average at 31.58, placing it just above oversold conditions.
The RSI measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions. Readings below 30 typically indicate oversold territory and suggest that selling pressure may be losing strength, while readings above 70 point to overbought conditions.
Bitcoin’s RSI recently bounced from near-oversold levels, signaling a potential shift in momentum. The RSI’s upward movement suggests that buyers are gradually regaining control after a period of selling. If this trend continues, Bitcoin’s price could stabilize and attempt a move higher, especially if RSI crosses back above the midline near 50.
This indicator aligns with the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI), which also showed an oversold rebound earlier. Together, these signals point to the possibility of short-term price recovery, particularly if Bitcoin can retest its 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) near $116,147. A confirmed move above this level would strengthen bullish momentum and support the projected breakout target near $134,575.
Currently, the RSI suggests Bitcoin is emerging from oversold conditions, setting the stage for potential upward price movement if buying pressure continues to build.
Bitcoin SMI Signals Oversold Rebound
The chart, created on August 3, 2025, shows Bitcoin’s Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) on the 4-hour timeframe. The SMI currently reads -22 (blue line), crossing above the signal line at -39 (orange line) within the oversold region. This upward crossover indicates a potential shift in momentum from bearish pressure toward early recovery.
The SMI refines the standard stochastic oscillator by measuring price momentum relative to a specific range. Values below -40 suggest oversold conditions and often precede bullish reversals, especially when confirmed by a crossover. Bitcoin’s recent move reflects selling exhaustion and renewed buying interest, signaling that bearish momentum may be weakening.
If the SMI continues its climb toward the neutral zone, it would strengthen the case for a short-term recovery. This momentum improvement aligns with other indicators showing stabilization, increasing the likelihood that Bitcoin could retest resistance levels near its 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) around $116,147.
Overall, the SMI’s oversold rebound points to an early sign of bullish momentum returning, provided Bitcoin maintains upward pressure in the coming sessions.
Bitcoin Seasonality Shows Slower Gains in 2025 Compared to Previous Years
The chart, created on August 3, 2025, presents Bitcoin’s seasonality trends, comparing price movements across 2023, 2024, and 2025. The data shows that Bitcoin is up 20.24% in 2025, trailing behind its 111.33% gain in 2024 and 154.34% rise in 2023 over the same period.
Seasonality charts analyze historical price performance to identify recurring trends. In 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin recorded strong rallies through mid-year, maintaining momentum into late Q4. However, in 2025, growth has been more restrained, with gains slowing significantly after July compared to previous cycles.
This divergence highlights weaker price acceleration in 2025 despite earlier strength. Historically, Q4 has been a favorable period for Bitcoin, as seen in late 2023 and 2024, where sharp rallies pushed yearly returns higher. If similar seasonal trends persist, Bitcoin could regain momentum later this year, although current performance remains well below prior trajectories.
Overall, the seasonality data underscores a notable slowdown in Bitcoin’s 2025 returns compared to the explosive growth seen in the past two years, pointing to more muted market behavior so far this year.