NOIDA (CoinChapter.com) —
Bitcoin price held steady near $83,000 on April 3, showing resilience despite lingering uncertainty from escalating U.S. trade tensions and slowing macroeconomic signals. The cryptocurrency continues consolidating within the $82,000–$85,000 range, with analysts and investors now watching for a macro trigger to break this sideways movement.
President Donald Trump reignited trade war rhetoric by announcing a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, with further tariffs on foreign goods expected this month. These policies, aimed at reducing the $1.2 trillion trade deficit, have raised fears of stagflation—slower growth combined with sticky inflation.
Global markets have responded cautiously. Equities failed to reclaim key moving averages, and crypto markets mirrored the indecision. However, signs emerge that the Federal Reserve could step in to offset the economic drag. Analysts now believe the Fed will lean toward easing, with the first rate cut expected as early as June. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders now assign a 58.5% probability of a rate cut at the June 18 meeting.
Crypto research firm Nansen estimates a 70% chance that Bitcoin and Ethereum will bottom before that cut materializes. With persistent fears over consumer demand, slowing growth, and the search for liquidity, Bitcoin appears poised to benefit from any Fed-induced tailwind in the coming months.
Tariffs, Liquidity, and Bitcoin’s Historical Setup for a Breakout
Bitcoin’s current range-bound structure could be hiding a bullish macro shift. President Donald Trump’s renewed focus on protectionist trade policies has triggered recession fears across global markets. With additional tariffs expected this month, investors are bracing for more economic disruption.
As economic pressure builds, markets are adjusting rate expectations. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s June 18 meeting has risen to 58.5% from 58% last week. Though a small shift, it reflects growing conviction that the Fed will act to shield growth from trade-driven drag. More rate cuts mean more liquidity, and Bitcoin tends to benefit when liquidity conditions improve.
Crypto intelligence platform Nansen estimates a 70% chance that Bitcoin and Ethereum will find a local bottom before June. Both assets are trading significantly below their year-to-date highs. Analysts believe the conclusion of tariff negotiations could reduce uncertainty and provide a macro catalyst for risk assets.
Historical parallels support that view. During the 2019 U.S.–China trade war, Bitcoin rallied from $3,300 to over $13,800 as the Fed pivoted to rate cuts. Goldman Sachs now expects three cuts in 2025, citing higher unemployment and weaker GDP growth.
Real yields are also falling again. Bitcoin has historically surged during negative real rate environments, particularly in 2012–2013 and 2020–2021, reinforcing the potential for a breakout in Q2.
A multi-cycle view of Bitcoin against U.S. real yields reinforces the outlook. In both 2012–2013 and 2020–2021, BTC staged powerful rallies during extended periods of negative real interest rates. The chart highlights these phases with shaded zones, showing how falling inflation-adjusted bond returns coincided with Bitcoin’s steepest upside moves.
As real yields begin slipping again in 2025, the structure resembles prior pre-breakout periods. Bitcoin’s current consolidation under $85,000 may not be a sign of weakness, but a pause before liquidity conditions trigger the next leg higher.
Ascending Triangle Pattern Puts Bitcoin on Path to Retest Record Highs
The BTC USD pair has formed a bullish technical pattern called the ‘ascending triangle’, which is clearly visible on the weekly chart. The setup is a textbook continuation pattern that signals pressure building for a breakout. A rising lower trendline, showing buyers stepping in at higher levels, and a flat upper resistance near $104,800. Historically, this structure reflects a tightening battle between bulls and bears, typically resolved to the upside.
The triangle’s price target is calculated by measuring its vertical height and then projecting that distance above the breakout point. The resulting target is approximately $170,565. While this is theoretical, even a partial move—just 40% of the projected breakout—would lift BTC above $121,000, enough to confirm a new all-time high.
The setup grows more compelling as macro conditions tilt in Bitcoin’s favor. Real yields are turning negative again, rate cut probabilities are rising, and recession expectations are creeping into major investment forecasts.
If Bitcoin reaches the triangle’s upper boundary by June, as the Fed pivots or signals readiness to cut, buy-side pressure could intensify. That level aligns with the CME’s anticipated rate decision window, though not with Nansen’s June 2025 bottoming outlook, since BTC price would need to bottom sooner for a pattern breakout in June.
An initial move toward $104,800 would test months of overhead resistance. A confirmed breakout above that level would likely accelerate inflows from sidelined capital, driven by both technical and macro catalysts. The triangle’s rising base shows persistent buyer interest. With macro liquidity cues, Bitcoin is well-positioned to convert this structure into a breakout—possibly its most significant since late 2020.