NOIDA (CoinChapter.com) —Ripple’s (XRP) recent price action reflects a complex interplay between macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, notably the resurgence of Trump-era trade wars.
As of April 1, 2025, XRP trades around $2.18, holding gains made in March but lagging behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. The wider crypto market rallied sharply following Donald Trump’s latest economic standoff with China, pushing Bitcoin back above $91,000 and fueling fresh interest in altcoins. But XRP’s momentum appears capped.
Global markets remain on edge. Trump’s proposed tariffs have rattled equities, driving capital toward hard assets. While Bitcoin and gold gained in tandem, XRP’s correlation with broader risk-on sentiment appears fractured. Investors remain cautious despite Ripple’s recent legal win, focusing instead on upcoming supply pressures and ongoing macro risks. US inflation remains above 3.2%, and the Federal Reserve’s March 2025 decision to hold rates has further bifurcated risk appetite in crypto assets.
XRP continues to face resistance near its Feb. 2025 highs. Social volume remains flat despite Ripple’s cleared path with regulators. This divergence underlines XRP’s weak narrative in a market seeking strong catalysts.
Descending Triangle Pattern Pressures XRP Toward Breakdown
XRP is trading inside a descending triangle pattern on the weekly chart, with the Ripple token’s price compressing between a static support near $2.12 and lower highs since late 2024. The structure signals growing bearish pressure, especially after the vertical breakout lifted XRP toward the $3.00 mark late last year. Each failed rally since then has formed a lower high, showing declining bullish momentum.
The descending triangle is a classic bearish continuation pattern. A breakdown typically occurs when sellers overpower demand near the base of the triangle, triggering a sharp move lower. In XRP’s case, the height of the pattern—roughly $0.88 between $3.00 and $2.12—implies a projected downside target near $1.27 once the support breaks. With XRP hovering just above support, the risk of confirmation grows with each weekly close near or below the floor.
Volume also supports the bearish thesis. Trading activity has steadily declined through the triangle formation, showing a lack of breakout momentum. There has been no conviction from bulls despite Ripple settling its case with the SEC and agreeing to a $50 million fine. That legal clarity failed to inspire sustained upside.
Ripple’s scheduled release of 1 billion XRP from escrow on April 1 adds further pressure. The token unlock increases circulating supply, and with demand still weak, the market may struggle to absorb it without triggering a breakdown.
Unless bulls step in with strong volume and reclaim higher resistance levels, XRP remains vulnerable to a breakdown toward $1.27 in the coming weeks.
SEC Settlement Fails to Ignite Rally Amid Token Unlock Concerns
Ripple Labs settled its years-long legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on March 25, 2025, agreeing to pay a $50 million fine—down from the originally proposed $125 million. The settlement ends a legal saga that began in December 2020 and accused Ripple of offering unregistered securities via XRP sales. The agreement awaits final approval from both the SEC and the presiding court.
The legal win gives Ripple long-awaited regulatory clarity in the US and potentially unlocks pathways for institutional partnerships. However, XRP’s price barely moved after the announcement. The lack of bullish follow-through suggests that the market had already priced in the resolution. Additionally, the move failed to alter XRP’s technical structure, with price still capped below a strong multi-month resistance band.
Another factor capping enthusiasm is Ripple’s programmed release of 1 billion XRP from escrow on April 1. 500 million XRP has already been unlocked, with the rest expected to follow in staggered tranches. These monthly unlocks are standard for Ripple, but come at a delicate time. With the market absorbing macro shocks and altcoins moving cautiously, the influx of fresh supply could pressure XRP further.
While the settlement clears a major hurdle, the combination of fresh token supply and muted market appetite suggests that XRP may struggle to sustain a breakout without a significant external catalyst. The coming weeks will determine whether Ripple can turn regulatory clarity into price momentum or whether macro headwinds will keep XRP sidelined.