Solana’s native token, SOL, witnessed significant price fluctuations in June 2024. After reaching a high of $175 on June 5 and a low of $124 on June 24, SOL closed at $144. The volatility was attributed to internal network issues and market conditions.
On July 2-3, SOL experienced an 8.5% decrease, falling to the $140 support level and erasing the gains from the previous three days. During that time, SOL had peaked at $154.80. Over the course of three months, SOL saw a 23% decline, while the broader cryptocurrency market dropped by 9%.
However, there was a brief bullish trend at the end of June when VanEck and 21Shares filed for the first Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. This filing caused a 6% spike in SOL’s price, providing temporary relief from market concerns. SOL’s cumulative volume delta (CVD) saw a net positive of $29 million in the past week, driven by increased spot buying on Coinbase.
Despite the ETF filings, their impact on the market was limited. The ETH to SOL ratio initially showed SOL’s outperformance, but reversed after ETH’s ETF approval in the U.S. SOL’s derivative markets also saw a lack of sustained bullish demand, with the volume-weighted funding rate and open interest returning to neutral levels.
On-chain data from Solana indicated a surge in daily transaction volumes, with 32.7 million transactions processed on June 1, rising to 43.8 million by June 30. However, there were signs of slowing new addresses joining the network, with June seeing 25.4 million new addresses, slightly down from May. Daily active users also fluctuated, reaching 2 million on certain days but falling to 1.6 million by the end of the month.
The total value locked (TVL) within Solana’s ecosystem decreased from $4.8 billion on May 1 to $3.4 billion by June 30, a decline of approximately 29%. However, Solana’s TVL has grown by 140% year-over-year, starting at $1.4 billion on January 1, 2024.
Solana has established itself as a significant player in the decentralized finance space, capturing nearly 25% of the DEX market with a trading volume of $38.4 billion in June. It is second only to Ethereum in DEX trading volume.
Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for Solana. The Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the 1-day timeframe shows a negative crossover, indicating increased bearish action. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also displays a decline in the green histogram, signaling higher selling pressure. The MACD averages are converging towards a bearish crossover, suggesting further downside.
Despite the recent decline, Solana remains above the crucial support level of the 200-day SMA. The key support level to watch is currently at $128. If the price stays above this level, the bullish trend may continue. However, breaking below $128 could lead to further declines towards the major support level at $87.
Solana’s price action has formed a symmetrical triangle formation, indicating potential future movements. A bounce off the 200-day SMA support could result in a 22% surge, potentially reaching $164, aligning with the top trend line of the triangle.