NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com) — XRP price continues to face mounting pressure as traders weigh conflicting technical signals.
Despite a brief rally to $3.40, the altcoin has failed to match Bitcoin’s momentum and now risks a steep correction.
At the time of writing, XRP trades at $2.36, down 3.99% over the past 24 hours.
Peter Brandt, a veteran technical analyst, flagged a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. In an X post, Brandt warned that XRP could fall as low as $1.07 if the $1.90 neckline gives way.
“Below $1.9, I would not want to own it,” he wrote. “H&S projects to $1.07. Don’t shoot the messenger.”
The warning comes as XRP trades 4.7% lower week-on-week, underperforming peers while Bitcoin rose to $88,800.
$2.50 Remains Key as Volume Weakens
XRP has not closed below $2 on the daily chart since breaking above it earlier this year. The $2.50 level has acted as both support and resistance over the past four months. A decisive move above this mark would strengthen the bullish case.
However, market activity has declined. Trading volumes dropped 35% over the past week, falling from $4 billion to $2.6 billion. The decline in spot market interest has raised concerns about short-term momentum.
Dom, an order flow analyst, believes XRP’s price action in the next two weeks will prove critical.
“We need to see clear breaks of the levels I have shown,” he said on X. “Just be aware of the next week or two, as the price action will be telling.”
Futures Spike and Technical Timing Add Fuel
Despite spot weakness, derivative markets tell a different story. According to @ali_charts, the total capital in XRP futures contracts rose 36% in two weeks, climbing from $2.12 billion to $2.89 billion. The rise suggests rising leverage and trader interest in the altcoin’s next move.
Javon Marks, another technical trader, sees bullish potential.
He noted that XRP has broken out above a falling wedge pattern, a move that previously led to a 570% surge.
“Prices can be ready for another substantial surge,” Marks posted on X.
Long-Term Targets Diverge as XRP Lawsuit Ends
Bitwise, a cryptocurrency index fund manager, has projected multiple long-term XRP scenarios using the capital asset pricing model. In its “max scenario,” XRP could reach $29.32 if it captures meaningful adoption in payments and asset tokenization. This would push the token’s market cap near $2.9 trillion, rivaling Microsoft’s.
A more conservative “bull scenario” sees XRP reaching $12.70, assuming moderate network growth and low regulatory resistance. In contrast, the “bear case” projects a collapse to $0.13 if adoption stalls and institutional interest fades.
Ripple’s ongoing legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears to have concluded. The company abandoned its cross-appeal, and the SEC dropped its own. However, XRP failed to rally on the news, highlighting waning market excitement around litigation updates.
Bitwise also filed for an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. last Oct. Approval could renew investor interest, though no date has been confirmed.
XRP Price Action Nears Crucial Pivot
XRP continues to consolidate below its local high of $3.40. Time-based analysis suggests the window for breakout closes soon. Historical cycles hint at explosive upside, but the current technical structure paints a more cautious picture.
Investors remain focused on the $1.90 support. If that fails, Brandt’s $1.07 target may play out. Conversely, holding above $2.50 could reignite bullish sentiment as timing models align.